Six Nations Tournament 2025: what conditions are required for France to win the competition?

Published by Cécile de Sortiraparis · Updated on March 10, 2025 at 03:32 p.m.
Three wins, one defeat, and a final match that could change everything... Can the French national team still hope to win this Six Nations Tournament? Our predictions.

The 2025 Six Nations Tournament has been an emotional one. Les Bleus kicked off with an easy victory over Wales, before losing by just a single point to arch-rivals England. A very frustrating defeat, which gave the XV de France a renewed determination to win: our players went on to crush the Italians, and have just won their match against the Irish, 42-27. All that's left for the French team is one match, one victory away from the podium. The match againstScotland is scheduled for Saturday March 15 at the Stade de France.

Three wins, one defeat: a respectable score, but is it enough to win the coveted trophy? First, let's take a look at the points scored by each team, and the provisional standings for this competition. As of March 10, 2025, here are the scores:

  • France - 16 points: 4 matches played - 3 wins - 1 loss - offensive bonus: 3 - defensive bonus: 1 - points scored: 183 - points conceded: 77 - tries scored: 26 - tries conceded: 10
  • England - 15 points : 4 matches played - 3 wins - 1 loss - offensive bonus : 2 - defensive bonus : 1 - points scored : 111 - points conceded : 91 - tries scored : 15 - tries conceded : 13
  • Ireland - 14 points: 4 matches played - 3 wins - 1 loss - offensive bonus: 2 - defensive bonus: 0 - points scored: 113 - points conceded: 100 - tries scored: 13 - tries conceded: 12
  • Scotland - 11 points : 4 matches played - 2 wins - 2 losses - offensive bonus : 2 - defensive bonus : 1 - points scored : 99 - points conceded : 96 - tries scored : 13 - tries conceded : 10
  • Italy - 4 points: 4 matches played - 1 win - 3 losses - offensive bonus: 0 - defensive bonus: 0 - points scored: 89 - points conceded: 166 - tries scored: 8 - tries conceded: 24
  • Wales - 3 points: 4 matches played - 0 wins - 4 losses - offensive bonus: 1 - defensive bonus: 2 - points scored: 62 - points conceded: 127 - tries scored: 8 - tries conceded: 14

What do these figures mean? At first glance, only a small point separates France from England, and England from Ireland. A tiny gap, and a ranking that could therefore be turned upside down in the next few matches.
But it's other data that should draw our attention. France scored 183 points and conceded 77: they are therefore at +106. England are at +20, and Ireland at +13. These numbers summarize all the points won or lost during the tournament (tries scored or taken, points conceded or scored, matches won, bonuses...). Because winning a match isn't enough to dominate the competition: you also need to score as many tries as possible (more than 4 in a match for the offensive bonus) or lose with as little difference as possible (7 points difference or less for the defensive bonus). It's these statistics that create the real gap between countries.

For the time being, France have a slight lead... But the French team can't rest on its laurels. The French can win this Six Nations Tournament, on several conditions.

The first is obvious: the French must win against Scotland on March 15. For a clear-cut, assured victory, Les Bleus must score four or more tries to qualify for the attacking bonus.

If the XV de France wins against Scotland without an attacking bonus, thenEngland must lose their final match, or win it, but with very few points. Given that England are preparing to face bottom-placed Wales, it seems unlikely that this scenario would be in the French team's favor.

A final, even more unlikely scenario sees France win the tournament if Les Bleus lose to Scotland, and Ireland and England also lose to their opponents.

As you can see, the French XV will have to give everything they've got in this final match if they are to win the trophy. It's going to be a great battle, as the Scots have declared their intention to fight to the bitter end. Spectators at the Stade de France will be cheering on Les Bleus with fervor!

Whatever the results of the final day's competition, no nation will achieve a Grand Slam, as each country has lost at least one match. So don't miss these suspenseful final matches, which ensure a thrilling tournament!

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