As Jean Castex is expected to deliver a press conference this Thursday February 25, 2021, Institut Pasteur released a new study this Wednesday. According to the study France’s vaccination campaign will not be enough – on its own – to prevent a leap forward in hospitalizations higher than the first wave peak. Why? The spread of mutations, and specifically the UK variant. As the INSERM said the UK coronavirus variant might become dominant in France between late February and mid-March 2021, Institut Pasteur considers the UK mutation will dominate by 56% in the country starting March 1. According to scientists’ previsions, the rate is to climb up to 91% a month later.
Despite the vaccination campaign in France, Institut Pasteur expects the situation to remain “complicated without additional decrease in transmission rates”. But yet foresees “28% fewer hospitalizations as of April 1, and 46% as of May 1” in comparison with a scenario the vaccine does not exist in.
Therefore, what are the solutions to be instated to prevent this likely leap forward in hospitalizations? Institut Pasteur head of infectious disease mathematic simulation Simon Cauchemez speaks about curfew already instated in France. According to the Institute, “reaching major cut in the transmission rate would enable to crush the epidemic dynamic and enjoy restart later, when more people will be vaccinated”.
Covid: 17% of people aged 20+ have been contaminated in France, Institut Pasteur says
