Covid: is an epidemic surge from this Fall to be feared in France?

Published by Caroline J. · Published on 8 June 2021 at 10h41
Invited on RTL this June 8, Head of the Scientific Committee Jean-François Delfraissy thinks "a fourth wave is likely this Fall", adding it will "be different from the others thanks to vaccination".

"The incidence is below 100, all indicators are green. Progressive lockdown exit did not break this virtuous dynamic." This is what French Health Minister Olivier Véran stated this Sunday June 6, 2021 on BFMTV as France is to enter a new lockdown exit phase starting from June 9.

So, how will the health situation evolve in the coming weeks and months in France? Should we fear a new Covid-19 epidemic surge this Fall? This is a scenario addressed this Tuesday June 8 by Jean-François Delfraissy on RTL. "We might attend a new epidemic surge in France in September-October, a fourth wave but that will be different from the others thanks to vaccination", the Head of the Scientific Committee affirmed, explaining the "Delta variant might logically take over the UK variant in France".

As for the Health Minister, on June 6, on BFMTV, he explained the French authorities are "tracking the Delta variant, the variant from India. The situation is very different in France than in the UK. In the UK, they increased the incidence of the virus, it doubled up in a matter of weeks", Véran explained.

"It (the Delta variant) is 40% more transmissible, this is why we track it very thoroughly and I notice that week after week, there is no community diffusion of this variant. There is no extension of the epidemic, yet, there are clusters", the minister yet admitted.

So, what about Fall? "If the wave does not break" in November or December "we could think Covid is something from the past", Véran considered this June 6 on BFMTV.

This past April, Delfraissy already spoke about likely new surge this Fall. Invited on TF1 news broadcast on April 12, the head of the Scientific Committee stated there will probably "be a new major viral spread in the Fall", yet adding that "a large share of the population would be vaccinated by then". So, "will we fully exit the crisis by the summer? No, I think we are more likely to definitely exit the crisis in 2022".

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