When will herd immunity be reached in Europe? That's the question many people are asking, as the vaccination campaign continues in many countries. While the UK has already vaccinated 27,630,970 of its inhabitants, or 41.46% of its population, other countries are following suit, including Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Austria, Greece and the Czech Republic. France, for its part, has vaccinated 5,630,671 of its inhabitants, or 8.4% of its population, as of March 22, 2021.
Vaccination in the world Thursday April 25th, 2024: percentage of population vaccinated by country
As many countries have started their vaccination campaign against the coronavirus at the end of 2020, what is the percentage of vaccinated people compared to the total number of inhabitants for each country? Sortiraparis provides a daily update on the state of vaccination in the world. Click here to find out where we are at Thursday April 25th, 2024. [Read more]
But according to Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for the Internal Market, herd immunity could be reached in Europe by July 14. This is what he said on TF1 on March 21. Thierry Breton bases his comments on the arrival of new vaccine doses. "Today,we clearly have in our hands the capacity to deliver 300 to 350 million doses by the end of June, and therefore by July 14 [...] we have the possibility of achieving continental immunity," he declared."We absolutely won't need Sputnik V [...] no other vaccines either," added Thierry Breton, before adding,"We now need those that are there to be mass-produced and mass-administered."
Skeptical scientists and experts
Except that for some experts and doctors specializing in herd immunity, this horizon remains highly uncertain; at least from a scientific point of view. "That's perhaps a little optimistic," Professor Didier Pittet, infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist at Geneva University Hospitals, tells L'Express. And with good reason: he points out that the vast majority of anti-Covid vaccines currently on the market require the injection of two doses, with an interval between doses. And maximum protection does not come until two weeks after the second dose. Johnson & Johnson's vaccine remains an exception; above all, it represents only a tiny proportion of supplies on European soil.
Moreover, the doctor is not the only one to regard the July 14 date as a sweet illusion. Professor Renaux Piarroux, epidemiologist and head of the parasitology department at the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris, tells L'Express that"achieving this collective immunity implies succeeding in protecting at least 80% of the population, i.e. 340 million people in Europe if we don't count infants, who transmit little", explains the doctor, who is also sceptical. Above all, he points out that vaccines are not 100% effective, which adds to the doubts. "We are more likely to be around 90%, a rate that has yet to be confirmed on the English variant", stresses the expert.
According to Professor Antoine Flahault, Director of the Institute of Global Health in Geneva,"the bet on collective immunity is a risky one". If we really want to get rid of the epidemic once and for all,"it would probably be wiser not to bet everything on vaccines, and to accompany vaccination campaigns with a plan to reduce the circulation of the virus on European territory". Another expert, epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola, supports the same hypothesis. "Finally, regardless of these various considerations, I don't see how we could possibly have vaccinated 53 million French people by July 14", she laments. In the meantime, the government is stepping up the vaccination campaign, with large-scale installation of vaccination centers across the country.
Vaccination in the world Thursday April 25th, 2024: percentage of population vaccinated by country
