This is a recurring question asked for months now: should vaccination be compulsory? As the government is still against it, epidemiologist Martin Blachier considers 20% of elderly people who are not vaccinated in France yet jeopardize hospitals this upcoming Fall.
If the health situation is improving today and the occupancy rate in hospitals is at 0% of ICU beds available at the beginning of the pandemic, experts fear a new surge in the epidemic and hospitalizations this next Fall if the entire at-risk population is not vaccinated.
Blachier explains that “according to our calculations, the 20% of vulnerable people not vaccinated will cause a hospital wave from October 2021. It is important to remind that during the first wave in March 2020, only 5% of the French population had been infected. Which had been more than enough to overcrowd our hospital services in two weeks”.
Aware of the government’s reluctance to impose vaccination to some trades or some population groups, the epidemiologist adds: “if we choose not to make vaccinating our senior compulsory, we need to prepare the people now to face Fall with a new epidemic wave”.