The latest report of the Santé publique France agency may sound scary. Between May 9 and June 16, 2020, 239 coronavirus clusters have been reported, without talking about clusters set outside nursing homes and limited family environment. As of June 18, 2020, 77 clusters were still active, including 35 in Ile-de-France.
Clusters affect health facilities (28%), companies outside health (16% in private and public companies), and people in precarious and vulnerable situation (14% in social integration facilities, and 6% in vulnerable communities). Among these clusters, 66% infect over 5 people.
If this number sounds scary, the Santé Publique agency is trying to be reassuring. Indicators are pretty good. On a domestic level, the R was 0.93 on June 12 (it was 0.88 on June 1). It means that on a general basis, one person infected by covid-19 will contaminate at least one person. As for the number of new cases compared with the population for 100,000 inhabitants, it is below 10 in all departments excluding Gard, Meuse, and Meurthe-et-Moselle!
The second wave is then not to be feared for now on a domestic level. The rate remains low thanks to the health brigades investigating to contain the virus and limit its spread. We know that 49% of the clusters have been controlled, with no new infection 2 weeks after contacts have been self-isolated, and 31% of clusters are still being investigated.
In mainland France, all indicators show that “the overall situation seems to improve, and no element is currently showing the epidemic is resurging” the Santé Publique France says. The reproduction indicator is above 1 in several regions: Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (1.02), Normandy (1.14), and Occitanie (1.51), Martinique (1.57), and French Guiana (2.59).