Coronavirus: when will the epidemic end? "We are going to have to deal with the virus until at least 2021" Macron says

Published by Rizhlaine F. · Published on 14 October 2020 at 20h50 · Updated on 15 October 2020 at 11h38
As the coronavirus epidemic is still striking the world, many people are wondering when the health crisis will end. When will the pandemic end and on what conditions? Vaccine, herd immunity, and test generalization, here is what to know about forecasts and ongoing researches.

2020 is marked by a global health crisis because of the coronavirus epidemic. In addition to the heavy human toll, this pandemic also leads to economic consequences because of lockdown and the closure of borders. Facemasks, barrier gestures, hand sanitizer, the world is trying to live with the epidemic, and more or less strict measures depending on countries. And yet, there is still one question without an answer: when will the pandemic end?

For now, it is hard for the scientific community to tell: we do not know much about the virus yet. Among the dynamics that are still in the blur are transmission ways, potential mutations, immunity and correlates of protection. When announcing new measures, including curfew in health emergency areas, Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday October 14, 2020 the epidemic will last "until at least the summer of 2021".

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WHO Emergency Committee gathered on August 1st at the organization headquarters, in Geneva. They say the coronavirus pandemic is likely to be “lengthy”.

Among the different factors that could lead to the end of the pandemic is herd immunity: if rather big part of the population catches the virus and develops antibodies, it could curb the spread of coronavirus as it will face fewer non-immune people. Yet, on a world-basis, the process would take a very long time.

So, what could accelerate the end of the health crisis? Generalizing tests, putting on quarantine, and sustaining barrier gestures are the main weapons. Developing saliva tests could also make the process easier and accelerate the research and the surveillance of clusters until they are closed and to prevent from the creation of other clusters.

Another major issue is the elaboration of a treatment. As for this solution, a genuine race to vaccine is currently on across the world. Over twenty vaccines are being elaborated and among them are Sanofi, AstraZeneca, Moderna in the United States and even BioNTech and Pfizer in China:

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Since the coronavirus broke out and this health crisis characterized as “the world’s major health crisis of our time”, searches and health professionals have been working hard to try and find a vaccine or an effective medication to erase COVID-19. If anti-malaria medication chloroquine is more and more spoken about in France, other trails are also considered in the world. Let’s give you an update on the medical breakthroughs giving us hope.

Then, we will take production and distribution time of the validated treatments into account, as well as their implementation on an international basis. Yet, the World Health Organization reminds there might be no vaccine ever available.

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As clinical trials are speeding up to find an effective treatment to the coronavirus epidemic, World Health Organization director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warns: there might be no vaccine ever against Covid-19.

Moreover, if the end of the epidemic is not to be seen on the horizon any time soon, on a short-term basis, the most probable scenario is of a second wave in Europe. Is another lockdown, de-containment, and re-containment trilogy to be expected again? If the general lockdown enabled to significantly slower the spread of the virus for the first wave in France, targeted re-containment – especially on a local basis – will be favored in the event of a second wave. A measure on a national basis will be implemented as a very last resort.

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