As indicators in France are increasing, the coronavirus epidemic is experiencing a recurrence. More and more measures are being implemented including mandatory facemasks in outdoor places, as well as within companies. A situation on which seems to be lurking the shadow of a local-based lockdown.
Moreover in France about twenty cities are subject to a specific re-containment plan. Among the decisions prefects can make, there are the temporary closure of facilities welcoming the general public including cafés, restaurants and bars, people and vehicles ban, closed public transport, 100km limit, and even the closure of markets.
So what criteria might lead to a re-containment? According to the 4 scenarios considered by the Castex office, measures – on a local basis – will be privileged in order to take control again on the epidemic. Among the indicators to monitor, there is the incidence rate. The vigilance threshold is exceeded from 10 cases for 100,000 people. And the alert threshold is started from 50 cases.
During the domestic lockdown, the incidence rate peaked on April 3, 2020 with a 51 incidence. At the end of the containment, it decreased to 7.49. Another indicator also gave the green light to containment exit, the reproduction rate, that is to say the number of people contaminated by one person carrying the virus. As of March 17, 2020 – when lockdown started – it was estimated between 1.97 and 2.01, and is said to have been over 3 before quarantine. And as France was exiting containment, it was set somewhere between 0.71 and 0.76. The indicator is green when below 1. But the determining indicator remains the occupation rate of hospitals that were overcrowded during the first wave.
To follow indicators every day:
French Covid map, September 28: 60 departments on high vigilance
We keep on monitoring data as for the coronavirus situation in France closely. More and more departments are once again vigilance areas because of the virus being highly active. This Monday September 28, 2020, 60 departments are highly vulnerable, and 69 in red area, including 14 in scarlet area ans 2 on maximum alert.