Coronavirus: new cases decreasing in France? Why the latest 2020 data are wrong

Published by Rizhlaine F. · Photos by My B. · Published on 28 December 2020 at 12h32 · Updated on 28 December 2020 at 14h09
Is the coronavirus epidemic in France more active than the latest data intend? Between the rise of covid tests prior to Christmas, public holidays and trips, here are factors making the end-of-year indicators wrong.

In France, is coronavirus spreading as much as prior to the Holidays? This December 26, 2020, the daily report on the health situation totaled 3,093 new Covid-19 cases in 24 hours. Two days earlier, it reported over 20,000 new cases. Yet, this Sunday December 27, 2020 Santé Publique France reported about 9,000 new coronavirus cases. But what do these incomprehensible change mean?

The end of 2020 sounds like a real challenge to report statistics. This explains why the evolution of the indicators over the past couple of days should be taken with a pinch of salt, and are not really showing the current situation of the epidemic in France. Several factors should be taken into account.

 Visuel Paris Tour Eiffel Visuel Paris Tour Eiffel Visuel Paris Tour Eiffel Visuel Paris Tour Eiffel Coronavirus in France, the situation on Friday January 22, 2021
Discover the situation in France as for the Covid-19 epidemic on Friday January 22, 2021. Where is the Covid-19 epidemic at in France? According to the latest report, 346 people died, and 22,848 new cases. Early curfew has been called on. Discover the latest measures instated, the news as for the reopenings and cancelations, breakthroughs on cures and the latest data and reports.

Prior to Christmas, French massively headed to testing centers to make sure they were not carrying the virus before reuniting with their families. On December 22, a domestic record was broken, the number of tests made in one day: it exceeded half a million. The more the French are tested, the greater the case toll, explaining then data announced in the days prior to Christmas Eve. Therefore, there is a link between the number of tests and the evolution in cases.

Coronavirus : à l'aube des fêtes de fin d'année, une évolution préoccupante de l'épidémieCoronavirus : à l'aube des fêtes de fin d'année, une évolution préoccupante de l'épidémieCoronavirus : à l'aube des fêtes de fin d'année, une évolution préoccupante de l'épidémieCoronavirus : à l'aube des fêtes de fin d'année, une évolution préoccupante de l'épidémie Coronavirus: the epidemic to resurge at the dawn of the Holidays?
As Christmas and New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day are just around the corner, the coronavirus epidemic is resurging. A disturbing situation as France has exited lockdown recently, and before the Holiday celebrations as they also mean gatherings.

After Christmas comes weekends and public holidays: some laboratories were closed on the occasion and others worked but where short-staffed. Two elements delaying statistical reports. Data are then taken into account the days after and this delay leads to increasing daily tolls.

Carte de France Covid le 5 janvier : le taux d'occupation lits de réanimation par régionCarte de France Covid le 5 janvier : le taux d'occupation lits de réanimation par régionCarte de France Covid le 5 janvier : le taux d'occupation lits de réanimation par régionCarte de France Covid le 5 janvier : le taux d'occupation lits de réanimation par région France Covid map, January 21, ICU bed occupancy rate per region
We keep on monitoring data as for the coronavirus situation in France closely. More and more departments are once again vigilance areas because of the virus being highly active. This Thursday January 21, 2021, 56.7% of ICU beds are taken in France. 100 departments are highly vulnerable. The entire country is still on health emergency and is now placed into early curfew starting 6 p.m.

One last factor should be noticed when following-up indicators: inter-regional trips. Amid the school holidays and family reunions, trips are more frequent and can make the surveillance of indicators per territories harder. Furthermore, when someone tests positive to coronavirus, the case is counted within the department and region of residence when they are known, and not depending on the area they have been tested in.

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