Covid: the summer “can become a nightmare”, infectious disease specialist Karine Lacombe thinks

Published by Caroline J. · Photos by Rizhlaine F. · Published on 6 May 2021 at 10h28 · Updated on 6 May 2021 at 15h30
As many French people are eager to return to terraces and some cultural places starting from May 19, infectious disease specialist Karine Lacombe thinks – in an interview with BFMTV this Thursday May 6, 2021 – the summer “can become a nightmare”.

France has started the first phase of the lockdown exit plan. Therefore, since this past May 3, trip restrictions have been ditched. Then, from May 19, terraces, non-necessary stores, and some cultural places will reopen if the health situation enables them. Yesterday, at the end of the Defense Council, government spokesman Gabriel Attal spoke about a “clear improvement of the health situation in France”, affirming that “if we keep making efforts, May 19 will be the day for terraces and cultural places to reopen”.

But some specialists are concerned about this strategy to exit the crisis. This May 6, 2021, invited on BFMTV, Paris Saint-Antoine hospital head of the infectious disease unit Karine Lacombe thinks the lockdown calendar is “very, very optimistic”. The infectious disease specialist even says “the summer can become a nightmare” amid the Coronavirus epidemic.

We’ve been able to model what may happen depending on different settings whether it be the incidence, as well as the intensity of vaccination, and we can see the major variable of the adjustment in this equation that will enable us to have a good summer or not will be vaccination. Then, of course, it will depend on each one of us’ individual behaviors: complying with the health guidelines…”, Lacombe explained on BFMTV.

Therefore, the infectious disease specialist calls for extending vaccination with AstraZeneca to all the French over the age of majority.

A few days ago, the Institut Pasteur revealed several projections about the evolution of the epidemic. They are particularly clear: "In case curbing measures are lifted too quickly on May 15, even in optimistic hypotheses about the vaccination pace" a "major increase in hospitalizations could be noticed", about 2,000 to 3,000 hospitalizations per day, the institute scientists say.

Covid : retour à la vie normale, les prévisions de l'Institut PasteurCovid : retour à la vie normale, les prévisions de l'Institut PasteurCovid : retour à la vie normale, les prévisions de l'Institut PasteurCovid : retour à la vie normale, les prévisions de l'Institut Pasteur Covid: evolution of the epidemic, Institut Pasteur’s predictions for this summer
How could the Covid epidemic evolve this summer? A question the Institut Pasteur tried to answer to as the institution issued this Monday May 24 their projections for this summer. Hypotheses making us hope "favorable conditions" for this summer 2021, especially thanks to the decline of the epidemic and the improving vaccination. To prevent a fourth wave or a new epidemic surge, a few conditions have to be met, though.

As for epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola, she thinks “the probability to prevent hospitals from being overcrowded again is weak”.

Visuel Paris quai de SeineVisuel Paris quai de SeineVisuel Paris quai de SeineVisuel Paris quai de Seine Covid: “The probability to prevent hospitals from being overcrowded again is weak”
As Emmanuel Macron has revealed the strategy to exit the crisis, epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola thinks this lockdown exit is “premature”. In an interview with Le Monde released this May 5, 2021, the biostatistician explains “the probability to prevent hospitals from being overcrowded again is weak”.

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