Coronavirus: The Institut Pasteur says hasty deconfinement could lead to a high risk of a second wave

Published by Manon C. · Published on 21 April 2020 at 10h54 · Updated on 21 April 2020 at 13h37
Less than 6% of French have been infected by coronavirus. A percentage too law to avoid a second epidemic wave, the Institut Pasteur says.

This Tuesday April 21, the Institut Pasteur released a study assessing the coronavirus infection in France. According to this study, less than 6% of French have been infected since the beginning of the pandemic.

But “for the collective immunity to be enough and avoid a second wave, 70% of people should be immune. We are far belowSimon Cauchemez explains as he leads the study. Moreover, “phasing out of confinement, if we want to avoid a second major wave, measures should be sustained” he adds.

The percentage of French infected by coronavirus is far too low to avoid a second epidemic wave if all measures are totally lift after May 11, the Institut Pasteur thinks.

To come to such a conclusion, the Institut Pasteur relied on mathematical and statistical modeling in partnership with the French Public Healthcare Agency and the National Institute of Health and Medical Research. Such tools will enable to cross data on deaths and the probability to die when infected in order to estimate the share of the population infected (5.7%).

The interval of incertitude is big, between 3 and 10% but whether it’s 6%, 10% or even 20%, it doesn’t change the problem which is that anyway, we’re very far from the 70% we need to phase out of confinement without any problem” Simon Cauchemez adds.

The Institut Pasteur’s study reveals other data such as the average toll of people infected by a case, that moves from 3.3  before the confinement to 0.5 during; as well as the lethality of the virus (0.5% of people infected die) that changes depending on the age (the death toll reaches 13% in men over 80 years old) and gender (men have 50% more risk than women).

Last but not least, the Institut Pasteur’s study shows that the hospitalization risk reaches 2.6% in people infected. It harshly increases with the age to reach 31% for men over 80 years old.


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