Groundhog Day 2026: Uncover Phil's Weather Predictions, the Punxsutawney Marmot

Published by Cécile de Sortiraparis · Updated on February 3, 2026 at 11:46 a.m. · Published on February 4, 2021 at 12:14 p.m.
Every year on February 2nd, the town of Punxsutawney celebrates Groundhog Day. During this tradition, Phil the groundhog is expected to forecast whether winter will end soon or not. Bad news for those hoping for an early spring: Phil predicts six more weeks of winter. So, don't put away your sweaters just yet.

Winter, lack of sunshine and gloomy weather can give us the impression that the same day repeats itself, over and over again, as if it never ended. Exactly like in the movie Groundhog Day, starring Bill Murray, in which the main character is condemned to relive the same groundhog day for years.

Groundhog Day falls on February 2 ( Candlemas Day) and is celebrated in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, USA. This tradition states that, if the groundhog emerges from his burrow and doesn't see his shadow, winter will soon be over. But if he does see his shadow, spring won't arrive for another six weeks.

For many, this groundhog story was an amusing anecdote from the film directed by Harold Ramis. And yet, this tradition is very real! Once again this year, local residents, curious onlookers and the Groundhog Club committee gathered in front of Phil' s burrow to discover his predictions. And on this cold February morning, the animal accomplished his mission...

According to Phil, the groundhog celebrated this February 2, 2026, the winter is expected to last another six weeks this year. The famous rodent reportedly saw its shadow upon emerging from its burrow: tradition holds that this means winter will be prolonged, and spring will be delayed. But where does this superstition originate?

The Weather Channel explains what's behind this belief. " Sunny weather in winter often indicates anticyclonic conditions that can clear the skies. A dry cold then sets in, and if the nights remain clear, the air cools further through nocturnal radiation. Temperatures drop accordingly, and frosts form. These are the perfect conditions for the marmot to see its shadow and get cold too!

A competitive sector

It's worth noting that Phil has some competition in his sector: several American cities have their own groundhog meteorologists. The town of Punxsutawney, however, is the originator of this tradition, and therefore the most popular on February 2.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the U.S. agency responsible for studying the ocean and atmosphere), the famous groundhog, Phil, isn't exactly known for his stellar forecasts. Over the past decade, his predictions have been correct only about 30% of the time. A comparison chart published by the agency reveals that Staten Island’s groundhog is the most reliable, with an accuracy rate of 85%! Meanwhile, Chuck, the New York groundhog, also predicts a long winter this year. Are the marmots right? We’ll find out in the coming days...

Skeptics will doubt a groundhog's knowledge and meteorological skills. But others will be carried away by the joy and good-natured atmosphere of this unique celebration. Next shock report: who puts chocolate in tinfoil?

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What’s the weather like right now in Paris and Île-de-France? Check the forecast daily before planning your activities. Rain or snow, sunshine or clouds—whether it’s cold or warm, good weather or bad—the city is yours to enjoy! Here’s your weather update for Paris and Île-de-France for Tuesday February 3, 2026 [Read more]

Practical information

Dates and Opening Time
On February 2, 2026

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    Official website
    www.groundhog.org

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