After an unprecedented heat wave, Île-de-France and Paris are getting a breath of fresh air. But the respite could be short: heat is forecast to return by the end of the week, and Météo-France now considers a new country-wide heat spell likely at the start of July 2026. One big unknown remains, on which forecasters urge caution: its actual intensity.
The heatwave that just ended will linger in memory. June 24, 2026, has, according to Météo-France, become the hottest day ever recorded nationwide, with the mercury surpassing 40 °C in Paris on June 24 and 25 (a threshold breached in the capital only five times since 1947). The storms of the weekend pulled temperatures back toward seasonal norms, but this lull feels more like a pause than a genuine turnaround.
The rise in temperatures is already getting underway by the end of this week. The French weather service, Météo-France, warns of readings above 28°C, possibly 30°C, in the northern half of the country for the weekend, with even higher values in the south. Models then converge toward a hotter regime starting Tuesday, July 7, driven by a high-pressure ridge expected to move in from the west, without the (heat-pump) effect observed last week.
At this stage, Météo-France's automatic forecast models predict around 33 °C in Paris, with temperatures reaching up to 38 °C in Bordeaux midweek. On a national scale, the institute anticipates heat peaks of 35 to 36 °C for the period from July 7 to 10. These figures should be treated with caution: they could shift in either direction as models are updated.
It's still too early to use the word. Météo-France reserves the term heatwave for when high temperatures persist, day and night, for at least three consecutive days. For the week of July 6 to 13, the institute confirms that a scenario of extreme heat is becoming more likely, while noting that the exact intensity remains uncertain at this stage.
Good news all the same: the models are showing results that are considerably less alarming than the scorcher at the end of June. An anomaly of about +3 to +5 °C above normals is expected, far from the +10 °C sometimes reached in June. The likelihood of an orange alert, however, should intensify from this weekend in the south of the country, and could expand at the start of the week.
One point is unanimously agreed: nearly no rainfall expected over the next two weeks, which could worsen an already pronounced soil drought. On the public‑sector side, the Prime Minister on Monday, June 29, convened an interministerial crisis cell to anticipate the next heat waves. Will this have an impact on the July 14 fireworks, as has happened before? To follow developments up close, the best move is to check the Météo-France vigilance map daily, since it is updated every day.
