Canicule, a new heat wave for the July 14th weekend in France and Paris?

Just as France is beginning to breathe a sigh of relief after an exceptional heatwave, according to the latest forecasts, a new heatwave could arrive as early as the July 14 weekend. Temperatures could once again exceed 35 to 40°C, particularly in the north, central France and the Île-de-France region, coinciding with the start of the summer vacations.

La Chaine Météo reports that a new heatwave could be on the way from Thursday July 10 across much of France, with a peak expected over the July 14 long weekend. Several weather models are predicting a sharp rise in temperatures, driven by the Azores anticyclone.

Heat returns after a respite

Since June 27, France has experienced an unprecedented heatwave, with temperatures reaching 41.6°C locally, notably in Durban-Corbières (Aude). This episode led to the closure of more than 1,300 schools, mobilized the emergency services for more than 300 emergency interventions, and claimed two lives. Temperatures began to fall on Wednesday July 2, bringing temporary relief.

But this lull is likely to be short-lived. From the middle of next week, the first rises in the thermometer are expected, due to the upwelling of warm air from the south, reinforced by the blocking of Atlantic disturbances.

What's the forecast for July 14th?

Data from several numerical models, such as the European ECMWF model, its IA AIFS version, and the Canadian GEM model, all point to a scenario of further heatwaves. From July 10 onwards, temperatures could exceed 30-35°C across France, with even more marked peaks in certain regions such as Nouvelle-Aquitaine, the western Paris basin and eastern Brittany.

Thenational heat indicator, which summarizes the temperatures recorded at 30 weather stations, is also rising sharply, exceeding 25°C as early as July 12, the threshold for a heat wave if this level is maintained for several days.

In Paris, Météo France is already forecasting temperatures in excess of 35°C for the July 14 weekend. Such a level is still rare in the capital, where these values are generally only observed a few days a year.

A scenario that is becoming clearer but still needs to be fine-tuned

According to Météo France, these forecasts are currently 3 out of 5 reliable. This is a relatively high rating with more than a week to go, reinforcing the credibility of this trend. By way of comparison, this week's forecasts were sometimes as low as 2/5 only three days ahead, due to thunderstorms and instability.

Even if this forecast remains to be confirmed in the coming days, the risk of an intense heatwave around July 14 seems increasingly plausible.

What precautions should I take?

Faced with such a scenario, several precautions are recommended:

Limit outings to the hottest hours.
Hydrate children, the elderly and vulnerable peoplefrequently.
Provide cooling solutions, such as fans or stays in air-conditioned premises.
Anticipate restrictions in certain public or educational establishments, if a new alert is triggered.

In all cases, remember to take the initiative to protect the most vulnerable, and check the weather channels regularly.