First Eurovision 2026 semi-final on Tuesday: here are the favorites

Who will clinch the 70th edition of the Eurovision? Who will have the honor of succeeding the Austrian JJ? The suspense is at its peak as the famed song contest rolls into Vienna this week. Ahead of the final to be staged on Saturday, May 16, 2026, two semifinals will decide the 20 finalists alongside the five countries already qualified. The first of these two semifinals is not to be missed on Tuesday, May 12, 2026.

In this opening round, 15 countries will compete and perform their songs to win the coveted ticket to the grand final. This Tuesday, Moldova, Sweden, Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Georgia, Finland (leading this year’s favorites), Montenegro, Estonia, Israel, Belgium, Lithuania, San Marino, Poland and Serbia will go head-to-head in the first phase. But only 10 of them will earn the chance to join the finalists. So which countries could join France, Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom and Austria, already qualified? Discover the favorites of this first semi-final and the nations that could earn a place in the final according to the bookmakers.

Leading the pack of favorites is Finland with Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen. According to bookmakers, the duo has a 98% chance of qualifying. Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen could even win this 70th Eurovision edition, according to bettors.

The Nordic country is being closely followed by Akylas, Greece’s representative and credited with 97%. In third place is Israeli Noam Bettan, also at 97%. For its part, la Suède  sits fourth in the standings. Finally, in fifth place we find la Croatie  (92%).

But which countries could miss the final and see their shot at clinching Eurovision 2026 slip away? According to the bookmakers, Portugal, Estonia, Belgium, Georgia and San Marino are not expected to get past the first semi-final.

• To be read
• Eurovision 2026: 15 countries in the running this Tuesday for the first semi-final
• Eurovision 2026: Who are Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, topping the betting odds?
• Eurovision 2026: which channel will broadcast the semifinals, and what time will they be live?

First Eurovision 2026 semifinal this Tuesday: the favorites you need to know

1. Finland – Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen – Liekinheitin (98%)
2. Greece – Akylas – Ferto (97%)
3. Israel – Noam Bettan – Michelle (97%)
4. Sweden – FELICIA – My System (96%)
5. Croatia – LELEK – Andromeda (92%)
6. Moldova – Satoshi – Viva, Moldova! (90%)
7. Serbia – LAVINA – Kraj mene (80%)
8. Lithuania – Lion Ceccah – Sólo Quiero Más (71%)
9. Poland – ALICJA – Pray (60%)
10. Montenegro – Tamara Živković – Nova Zora (50%)
    
    
11. Portugal – Bandidos do Cante – Rosa (48%)
12. Estonia – Vanilla Ninja – Too Epic To Be True (39%)
13. Belgium – ESSYLA – Dancing on the Ice (35%)
14. Georgia – Bzikebi – On Replay (27%)
15. San Marino – Senhit feat. Boy George – Superstar (22%)

So, are the bookmakers right? Tune in on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 to find out the official results as well as the countries that qualified from the first semi-final of the Eurovision.

Note that two of the five automatic qualifiers will reveal their performance in this opening phase. They are Italy and Germany.

Eurovision 2026: 15 countries in the running this Tuesday for the first semi-final
On Saturday, May 16, 2026, the Eurovision Song Contest will reveal the name of its new winner in a grand final staged in Vienna, Austria. Until then, the musical spectacle, watched by millions of viewers, will determine the finalists of this 70th edition. The first of the two semifinals is not to be missed on May 12. Without further ado, discover the songs from the 15 countries in the running this Tuesday evening. [Read more]

Eurovision 2026: here's the running order for the semi-finals
Ahead of Eurovision’s grand final scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026, contestants will have to pull out all the stops in the dreaded semi-finals, set for Tuesday, May 12 and Thursday, May 14. So, which country will open the festivities? When will the Finnish duo, this year’s big favorite, perform their song? Answer with the semi-final running order! [Read more]

Eurovision 2026: which channel will broadcast the semifinals, and what time will they be live?
Eurovision returns this week with a grand final you won’t want to miss on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Before that, viewers will be able to watch the semifinals live from Vienna. So, what time and on which channel can you follow these two stages scheduled for Tuesday, May 12 and Thursday, May 14? We’ve got you covered. [Read more]